Another Liberal byelection loss shows once again that Justin Trudeau is the problem
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, Bill Clinton 91Ƭ ’s strategist, famously summed up what he thought would be the central issue in the 1992 American presidential election.
Following two devastating byelection losses in previously rock-solid Liberal ridings this week and , Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his team seemingly still want to believe, like Carville did, rather than something much deeper.
They argue their unpopularity — — has much to do with the and public perceptions that the economy is a mess.
Economic bright spots
This analysis is not without merit. Some polls indicate as many as . The price of everything from housing to milk to gasoline seems to have Canadians craving change.
To be sure, . But it 91Ƭ ’s low compared to the jobless rate during the pandemic or . Inflation also , and interest rates are gradually coming down.
Trudeau 91Ƭ ’s Liberals therefore think they have a reasonably good economic story to tell. They also believe they receive — chief among them the Liberal care package of , .
Liberals apparently believe talking up these programs, and claiming a Conservative government would kill them, will boost the government 91Ƭ ’s popularity.
People, personalities, policy
But the economy, and how the government is dealing with it, isn’t likely to be the central issue in the next federal election.
During my years in federal politics, it became clear that elections in Canada boiled down to the three Ps — people, personalities and policy, in that order. The party leaders and their personalities are usually the chief motivator for voters. Public policy typically comes a distant third.
To say that Trudeau is unpopular among Canadians is an understatement. and enjoys less support than any since Brian Mulroney 91Ƭ ’s Tories in the early 1990s. . This summer 91Ƭ ’s byelection losses merely punctuate these dismal numbers.
Put simply, Canadians are fed up with Trudeau. Québec Liberal MP Alexandra Mendes summed up Trudeau 91Ƭ ’s dilemma with voters — “” — and says her constituents have overwhelmingly told her “.”
What was once the Liberals’ biggest political asset — Trudeau 91Ƭ ’s physical appeal and style, his social media dominance, his enthusiasm, — is now their chief liability.
To paraphrase Carville, the line that might best sum up the focus of the next federal election is: “It 91Ƭ ’s the personality, stupid.”
The face of the federal government
Governments are generally defined by the leader. But Canada has arguably not had a government since Mulroney 91Ƭ ’s that is as much identified with the prime minister than this one.
Trudeau 91Ƭ ’s team decided early on that he . He was portrayed , leading the Liberal party from nine years in opposition and third-party status . The government and Trudeau 91Ƭ ’s brand were therefore to be one and the same.
This is a fair-weather political strategy. When the sun is shining, the leader basks in it. But when the political , the leader gets drenched. Overexposure of the prime minister becomes inevitable, resulting in voter fatigue, if not hostility. Familiarity breeds contempt.
But don’t all long-in-the-tooth governments struggle with popularity? Not necessarily.
When Jean Chrétien , his government 91Ƭ ’s standing in the polls was . Chrétien wore reasonably well on Canadians over time partly because his governments were not personified. He seemingly knew being in everyone 91Ƭ ’s face every day would grate on Canadians.
New strategy
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His people want him out more talking to Canadians. They want him telling the story about the real economy as revealed in the statistics, championing Liberal programs that help Canadians manage the cost of living, and branding Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre as someone who will tear asunder all that Team Trudeau has built.
The way to right the Trudeau ship, according to this plan, is to increase the prime minister 91Ƭ ’s exposure, thrusting the most unpopular and overexposed politician in the country right in the face of Canadians.
Good luck with that.
, Assistant Professor (Continuing Adjunct), School of Policy Studies,
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